Stars 15 Royals 10

Stars returned to winning form on Saturday with with a 15-10 win over the Surrey Royals. Interesting ballgame for sure. Stars jumped out to an 8 -0 lead after two innings in large part due a 5 hit outburst in the second inning. It was a to and fro battle the rest of the way with the teams matching run production. The Stars led by 9 going in the last inning when the Royals stringed together 5 hits of their own to close the Stars lead to 5 runs when they ran out of outs.

As I said the game was interesting. I recently heard someone say that they refer to something as ‘interesting’ when they can’t think of anything good to say. That’s not what I mean here. Here it’s more like wanting to understand things better. The stats of the game show almost identical performance. Each team had 16 hits. The Royals had 5 runners reach on errors and 1 on a walk, where the Stars had 4 runners reach on walks. So even with nearly the same number of baserunners one team scores 50% more runs than the other. While the stat book isn’t detailed enough to prove anything other than we aren’t very good at filling out the scorebook, the SGR has conducted its own SABRMetric analysis and would offer the following explanation (Apologies to Bill James):

1. Runners who reach base are more likely to score than runners who don’t. No, Captain Obvious hasn’t taken over the SGR. Just making sure you are paying attention.
2. Leadoff runners who reach base are more likely to score than players who reach base with one or two outs. In fact teams that get the leadoff batters out have significantly higher winning percentages.
3. Hitting with runners on base is YUGE! In these situations Stars hit .462 compared to Royals .387.
4. Walks kill. Of at least bite you in the butt.

The main takeaway is that not all hits are of the same value. Lead off hits are worth more than those with outs already on the board. Hits with runners on base also have more value as do hits with runners in scoring position. By now you are probably thinking that leadoff hits with runners in scoring position would be the most valuable of all, to which I say ‘that’s interesting.’

The Stars were the benefactors of a post-game pic-a-nic hosted by Mr and Mrs Skimplemaier to express appreciation for the support provided when their condo went up in flames this past winter. As Skimpy told me ‘friendships are way more valuable than things like condos. Although if the real estate market keeps going up that may change.’ 'Interesting', I said. Regardless a very nice and much appreciated gesture.

Actually the conversation and SABRMetric thingy got me to thinking about what we place value on. Last week OConn was apoplectic when his dog ate two ‘perfectly cooked’ chicken breasts. And then this week he was beside himself when the same ‘chicken thieving dog’ was sick in the animal hospital. Tup doesn’t go anywhere without bringing Lady, former champion bird dog, who’s legs are now in such poor condition she can barely walk from the car to the shade of the pee-tree much less catch a bird. Horses with bad legs could only dream of such treatment. And the Stars play with 5 players with various leg ailments. Apparently we have value to the Stars, somewhere between arthritic dogs and broken down horses I suspect.

This leads me to the point of the SGR which is best explained by way of the following story. A travelling salesman approaches a farmer’s house. On the way to the door he notices a pig in the yard with only three legs. The salesman proceeds to knock on the door and conduct his business with the resident farmer. As he starts to leave he says to the farmer, ‘I’m curious about the pig in the yard. What happened to his other leg?’ The farmer animatedly responds, ‘I’ll have you know that is the finest pig west of the Red River. One night me and the misses were fast asleep when a fire broke out in the house. Well that pig found his way to break down the front door, battle his way up the stairs through the smoke and flame, woke us up, then led us down to safety. Yessiree that pig saved our lives.’ The salesman replied, ‘That is amazing. But what about his missing leg?’ The farmer replied, ‘Well sir. You don’t eat a pig like THAT all at once!’ Now that’s interesting!

Highlight performances include Big Lefty and IKat each of whom went 3 for 3 with 2 RBIs. OConn and went 2 for 3 knocking in 3 runs and scoring 2. KEN threw a solid 5 innings allowing 4 runs all of which were unearned while striking out 5 and walking none. Physio came in in the sixth and threw like a man with an injured hip flexor. Royals bats came alive in the eighth with every batted ball finding a patch of green. Skimples came in to put out the fire allowing an RBI single before fanning two of the last 3 batters to secure the victory.

Next up Pirates at Hillcrest.

GO STARS!!!